Do you believe that a system is going to
give you an edge over Roulette or Craps or some other game of chance? There are
hundreds of guys ready to sell you thousands of "systems" that promise to help
you get rich in hours. Let us look closer to these systems and why almost all of
Martingale, Fibonacci, Parlay, and so on. They're all "systems"
designed to beat the House edge. And they all basically try it the same way:
adjust your bets so that when you win your total winnings exceed your loses.
- Martingale system implies doubling your bets each time until you win.
Each successful cycle brings you $1 if you start with $1.
offers betting in the following series: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13... where the next bet
is the sum of the last two.
- Parlay says make a bet and leave the winnings
there for the next bet.
You can find very convincing reviews of one of these systems - Martingale - on the
wizard of odds.
The article use computer simulation to evidence that on the long run you cannot win more than you loose.
Frequent winnings - the red bell curve - with the peak of $51 are overweighted
by the stairs on the left that indicate substantial loses. Moreover, playing
with Martingale systems and limited maximum bet you will have even worse odds
with respect to playing with flat bets. Even, if the bets can be increased
without any limitations (up to infinity), you would not gain the edge - you
couldn't even stay even because there is the house edge.
All of these systems are based on one simple belief: if you've lost one, two,
three, whatever times in a row then your chances of winning on the next run are
better than when you started betting. And as all the other "system criticizers"
we should tell you that this assumption is quite wrong! In fact, the roulette
wheel and craps do NOT have a memory. According to the theory of probability, the
chance of getting "red" after 2 consecutive "blacks" on a roulette is
the same 1/2! The theory of probability says that the chance of getting 3
consecutive "reds" are 1/2*1/2*1/2=1/8 but it does NOT mean that after 3
consecutive "reds" the probability of getting "red" is lower then 1/2, it's
exactly 1/2! As almost all systems are based on these wrong assumption, they all fail.
That's why all "probability" systems are useless in online casinos when you play simple
games of chance on a one on one basis. However, you can definitely gain the edge
over the house in terrestrial casinos if you use so-called "discipline" system.
The general idea is simple - leave the table after winning bet. The build-in
house edge for a game can be 1% but, statistically, the house can earn 2 or 3%
if most of the players play until they spend all of their money. In the same way
you can increase your odds by leaving the table after winning stake, it does not
matter whether you won or lose as a total. Some players set limits of winning
for every play session depending on the bankroll. These "discipline" systems can
do increase you odds but the effect is not very large and you would hardy turn
the odds in your favor on the long run.
Nevertheless, you can do exploit the theory of probability, not systems, to
gain the edge playing progressive slot machines and other progressive games. The
pot is growing as more players make deposits to progressive jackpot. The idea
is: If you start playing the slot when the pot is over the average level, you will
have the SAME chances to win a jackpot, but the jackpot is much heavy.
For example, for $1 bet you have the same chance of winning $1,000 on WowPot
right after last win or winning $100,000 when the jackpot has reached this
level! Another aspect is finding this average level.
Nobody will tell you the probability curve for a slot machine. However, you can
estimate this level by examining previous wins, if you have plenty. Moreover, if
the jackpot is twice then an average level or over the historical maximum
(providing the jackpot is played for a long period of time and there are dozens
or hundreds of winners), you have even more chances and ... the odds are in your
favor as your expected win value will be positive!!!
For example, Major Millions
jackpot has been won 3 times with a level of over $1.5 million (maximum was
$1,683,526). The average win is somewhere under $500,000 and the starting
(minimum) level is $250,000. Let's suppose you
see Major Millions at $1.5 million and start playing. I would give you over 80%
probability that it will not reach $2.0 million before you win. So,
theoretically, investing on average $250,000 (from $0 to $500,000) your expected
winning will be 0.8*$1,750,000 - 0.2*$500,000 = $1,300,000! However, 1) you are
not the only player and the jackpot can be won by others, 2) there is a
probability to loose $0.5 million if you have not more money to play when
jackpot exceeds $2 million, 3) jackpot stays at this attractive level (over $1.5
million) for a relatively small portion of time, so you should wait, say, 95-99%
of time before start playing. You can find information on all jackpot max wins,
seeds, current values, odds and more at the specialized site - online jackpots.
Taking into account all these notes you can now
create your winning strategy to win a jackpot. Try this strategy on a smaller
jackpots and, probably, some day you'll become a millionaire by winning Major
Millions. Check out our HUGE monthly jackpot winners stories and testimonials to learn
more about real online jackpots winners.